Good morning. The world did what it does overnight, so here’s what matters. A lot on the radar today, and my two cents on each.

The Ceasefire Is Cracking — and Now the Whole Gulf Is in It

In one of the most serious exchanges since the truce began, Iran launched missiles at Kuwait — killing at least one person, according to Kuwait’s foreign ministry — and at Bahrain, while the US carried out new strikes on Qeshm Island after hitting an oil tanker bound for an Iranian port. Kuwait has suspended flights after several people were injured in the strike on its international airport. This is developing as I write, so the details will firm up through the day.

This is the ceasefire I’ve been telling you to watch instead of cheer. A truce announced from a podium is worth exactly nothing if the missiles keep flying, and now they are flying at Kuwait and Bahrain. The fight is no longer just Israel and Iran. When you hand a regime a pause, this is what they do with it. Watch what they do, not what gets declared.

Washington and Jerusalem, Not on the Same Page

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Congress that Netanyahu’s pledge to seize 70 percent of Gaza contradicts the American plan. “We have a plan,” he said, “it doesn’t call for that” — open daylight between the US and Israel, said out loud, in front of lawmakers.

Here is the quiet lesson in that. Even our closest ally is not fully in step with us, and that is not a betrayal — it is just the truth of how alliances work. Friends are not the same as family, and they answer to their own interests. It is one more reminder that, at the end of the day, we are the ones who have to look out for us.

At Home, a Fight Over Israel’s Own Institutions

Israel’s attorney general, Gali Baharav-Miara, warned that the government has launched a “race to eliminate democratic institutions” ahead of the coming elections, as a contested bill advances that would give the government significant control over broadcast media and news sites. Supporters call it overdue reform of a one-sided media establishment. Critics call it a power grab. Both are saying it loudly.

I’m not going to hand you a side on this one, because honestly the people fighting it out are family, and reasonable Jews land in very different places here. What I’ll say is this: a free press and strong institutions are worth protecting no matter who is in power, because the rules you weaken for your guy get inherited by the next one. And a country arguing this fiercely, in the open, is a democracy that is still very much breathing. Watch it closely.

A Crack in Iran’s Network — One to Watch

In Iraq, two powerful Iran-backed militias — Asaib Ahl al-Haq and the Imam Ali Brigades — announced they will begin handing their weapons over to Iraqi authorities, as Iraq’s newly elected prime minister pushes to make the state the only one holding guns.

If this is real, it’s a genuine crack in the network Iran has spent decades building across the region. But “announced they will” is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence. We have been promised disarmament before. Hope a little, trust slowly, and watch whether the weapons actually move.

California Votes — and the Whole Country Is Watching

The results from Tuesday’s California primary are still coming in, but the early returns are already drawing national attention. In the governor’s race to replace the term-limited Gavin Newsom — a field of more than 60 candidates — early numbers showed Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Xavier Becerra out front, with Tom Steyer behind them, as several Democratic contenders conceded overnight. In the Los Angeles mayor’s race, incumbent Karen Bass is projected to advance to a runoff, with her opponent not yet clear. And in the Bay Area seat once held by Nancy Pelosi, State Sen. Scott Wiener advanced to the general election.

A reminder on the mechanics, because they matter here: California uses a top-two primary, so the two highest finishers in each race move on to November regardless of party. These are early numbers, California counts slowly, and they will shift. I’m watching these races closely, and the Jewish community has every reason to as well — because the questions that matter most to us, on antisemitism and on Israel, do not split neatly down party lines anymore. Watch the records, not just the letters next to the names. We will go deeper once the results are final.

Yael’s Take:

A truce falling apart across the Gulf. An ally keeping its distance. A democracy fighting with itself in public. A militia maybe laying down its guns. And here at home, an election the whole country is watching.

That is a lot to hold before your coffee is even cool, and I’m not going to pretend any of it is simple. None of it is. Stay informed, stay skeptical of the easy answer, and do not look away just because it is heavy. We were built for exactly this.

Be safe out there, be proud of who you are, and don’t you dare shrink. Back tonight.

— Yael

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